OK, so the final weekend of the regular season this year won’t be quite as exciting as the final weekend last year, when four teams still had a shot at the top spot entering the weekend and we ended up with a de facto regular-season title game between UMass-Lowell and Providence on the final night. Not having a race for the final couple playoff spots (everyone makes the tournament this year) takes away some drama, too.
But there is still a lot at stake this weekend. Boston College has already locked up the regular-season title, but there are still six teams battling for the remaining three home ice spots and remaining four first-round byes.
Just to give you a refresher on the new Hockey East playoff format:
-The top five teams get a first-round bye.
-The remaining six teams play a single-game elimination round on March 7-8 (6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9), with the higher seed hosting each game.
-The field is then reseeded for the following weekend’s quarterfinals, with the top four teams hosting best-of-three series.
-The semifinals will be Friday, March 21, at TD Garden.
-The championship game will be Saturday, March 22, at TD Garden.
Before we get started, a stick tap to the fine folks at Hockey East for sending out updated playoff pictures that make a post like this much easier than it would be otherwise.
1. Boston College (16-1-2 Hockey East, 25-4-4 overall)
Points: 34
Max: 36
Possible seeds: 1
Remaining games: vs. Notre Dame
BC clinched the regular-season title and No. 1 seed two weekends ago. The main points of interest here are streaks. The Eagles have a 19-game unbeaten streak (17-0-2), and one more win or tie would make it the longest unbeaten streak in Jerry York‘s 20 years at BC. It would also tie the legendary 1992-93 Maine team for fewest losses in a Hockey East season. In other streak action, Johnny Gaudreau’s point streak stands at 28 games. He’s been held without a point just once all season, and his 63 points are 12 more than anyone else in the country.
2. UMass-Lowell (10-5-3 Hockey East, 20-8-4 overall)
Points: 23
Max: 27
Possible seeds: 2-5
Remaining games: at Vermont, at Vermont
The River Hawks have already clinched a first-round bye. They can clinch home ice with two points against Vermont this weekend. If they come away with one or zero points, though, they open themselves up to the possibility of dropping to fifth. For reference: Lowell wins the head-to-head tiebreaker against UNH, loses it against Northeastern and Maine, and would win it over Providence at 23 points. If Lowell and Providence end up at 24 points, the tiebreaker flips because of wins in conference play, but it wouldn’t be as relevant because the tie either wouldn’t determine home ice or it would be part of a three- or four-way tie. We’ll deal with three- and four-way tiebreakers on Saturday if we need to.
3. Northeastern (10-6-2 Hockey East, 18-10-4 overall)
Points: 22
Max: 26
Possible seeds: 2-6
Remaining games: at BU, vs. BU
The Huskies can clinch a bye with a single point against BU. They can clinch home ice with three points. Two points opens up all kinds of tiebreaker scenarios. For reference: Northeastern wins head-to-head tiebreakers over Lowell, Maine, Providence and Vermont, but loses against UNH. The only way the Huskies drop to sixth and miss the bye is if they end up in a three-way tie for fourth with UNH and Vermont, as they’d come out of that third. We’ll deal with other three- and four-way ties on Saturday if we need to.
4. Maine (9-6-3 Hockey East, 15-11-4 overall)
Points: 21
Max: 25
Possible seeds: 2-7
Remaining games: vs. Providence, vs. Providence
The Black Bears clinch a bye with two points against Providence and home ice with a sweep. They can still get home ice with three or even two points, and they can still get a bye with one or zero points, but it would depend on what other teams do. For reference: Maine wins the head-to-head tiebreaker against Lowell, but loses it against Northeastern, UNH and Vermont. Three- and four-ways later if needed.
5. New Hampshire (10-8-0 Hockey East, 18-15-1 overall)
Points: 20
Max: 24
Possible seeds: 2-7
Remaining games: at Merrimack, at Merrimack
The Wildcats clinch a bye with three points against last-place Merrimack. They obviously need teams above them to lose to have a shot at home ice. For reference: UNH wins head-to-head tiebreakers over Northeastern and Maine, but loses to Lowell and Vermont. It wins head-to-head against Providence if it stays one win ahead of the Friars, but if the two end up with the same number of wins, it would come to who has the better record against whichever team ends up second, as both went 0-2-0 against first-place BC. Three- and four-ways later.
6. Providence (9-7-2 Hockey East, 17-9-6 overall)
Points: 20
Max: 24
Possible seeds: 2-8
Remaining games: at Maine, at Maine
The Friars clinch a bye with three points at Maine. Anything less opens up the possibility of finishing sixth, seventh or, if they get swept, even eighth. The best way for the Friars to get home ice is to sweep Maine and have one of the following happen: UNH gets less than a sweep against Merrimack, Northeastern gets a point or less against BU, or Lowell gets swept by Vermont. For reference: PC wins the head-to-head tiebreaker against Vermont, but loses it against Northeastern. It would lose a tie against Lowell at 23 points, but win it at 24 points (due to in-conference wins). It would lose against UNH assuming the two have the same results, but if PC gets a win and loss and UNH gets two ties, things get complicated. Then it goes to record vs. whoever finishes second.
7. Vermont (9-9-0 Hockey East, 17-11-3 overall)
Points: 18
Max: 22
Possible seeds: 4-8
Remaining games: vs. Lowell, vs. Lowell
The Catamounts most likely need to sweep Lowell to have a shot at a bye and/or home ice. Here’s one scenario in which they get home ice (it might be the only one — I have yet to find another): Sweep Lowell, Maine takes three or more points from Providence, UNH splits with Merrimack, and Northeastern gets swept by BU. Vermont ends up in a three-way tie for fourth with UNH and Northeastern and comes out as the top team in that tiebreaker.
8. Notre Dame (8-9-2 Hockey East, 19-12-2 overall)
Points: 18
Max: 20
Possible seeds: 6-8
Remaining games: at BC
We know the Irish are hosting a one-game playoff. They can’t climb high enough to get a bye, and no one below them can catch them. They’d probably like to avoid a potential 1-8 series at BC in the quarterfinals, though. Their best chance to do that is to beat BC on Saturday and get some help from Lowell against Vermont.
9. UMass (4-13-3 Hockey East, 8-21-4 overall)
Points: 11
Max: 11
Possible seeds: 9-10
Remaining games: None
The Minutemen’s regular season is already over, so they’ll sit and watch this final weekend knowing they’re going on the road for a one-game playoff. From a logistical standpoint, they’d probably prefer not to have to go to Notre Dame for that game. That means either Notre Dame moves up to six or seven, or BU passes UMass (BU wins the tiebreaker if they end up tied).
10. Boston University (3-12-3 Hockey East, 8-20-4 overall)
Points: 9
Max: 13
Possible seeds: 9-11
Remaining games: vs. Northeastern, at Northeastern
The Terriers are in the same position as UMass — they’re going on the road for a one-game playoff and would probably prefer it not be at Notre Dame — except they still have games to play. There are two scenarios in which the Terriers finish last: they get swept and Merrimack picks up three or more points against UNH, or they get one point and Merrimack sweeps UNH (Merrimack owns the tiebreaker). BU has never finished last in Hockey East.
11. Merrimack (2-14-2 Hockey East, 7-20-3 overall)
Points: 6
Max: 10
Possible seeds: 10-11
Remaining games: vs. UNH, vs. UNH
The two scenarios mentioned in the BU section are the only scenarios in which the Warriors avoid a last-place finish. The last time they finished alone in last was 2008 (they also tied for last with Providence the next year).